@OP – You might be asking yourself, as we all are, how did I get it so wrong? The answer of course is that all the people ‘dismayed’ by Cameron switch to Labour to avoid him (give or take) and all those ‘dismayed’ by Brown staying voted for the Conservatives. Why? The coverage of coalitions meant that they feared their undesired would be propped up by Nick so actively voted the other way (even in LD safe seats like NE Fife where it didn’t make any sense to do so).

I keep crunching the numbers, working out proportional swings, guessing at the tactical effect. I never ever thought I’d see the results I’m getting.

Yes, yes they could. Get above 38%ish in the polls, and assuming there’s some tactical voting in their favour, they (we) win a massive majority.

And under Gordon’s AV plan, it’d be even bigger.

I mean, I preicted we’d break the hundred seat barrier this time; I was told I was being overly optimistic. I said the debates and media attention would make a difference. I really should have put that fiver down a few months back.